No one knows what Tuesday’s election results will hold, but if the last 10 years are any guide, Central Florida voters can count on at least one certainty: a changing political map across the region with the urban core turning brighter blue and some outlying area turning a deeper red.
The Sentinel compared precinct results from the 2010 Florida governor’s race when Rick Scott won to the 2018 race, when Ron DeSantis became governor. In those eight years, a number of precincts flipped from pink to baby blue and, in a few instances, an even darker shade of blue.
See for yourself on OrlandoSentinel.com. There you can zoom in on a map and slide the bar from left to right to see the 2018 results versus 2010. Hover over a precinct’s boundaries to learn its location and a comparison of voter registration between the two election cycles.
About 1,500 people move weekly to metro Orlando, with many of them settling into places like Horizon West or in suburban Seminole County.
Bobby Olszewski, a Republican and former Winter Garden city commissioner, said growth in Horizon West has played a critical role in reshaping politics in west Orange County.
“Seeing how solid that was in the beginning of the decade to where we are today, it’s unbelievable the difference,” Olszewski said. “That was a solidly Republican area without any question or doubt.”
Republicans are hoping to regain a key state House district there on Tuesday. Bruno Portigliatti, who heads a chain of assisted living facilities, is facing incumbent Geraldine Thompson, a Democrat, in the District 44 race.
Back in 2010 in that same district, which sits south of Lake Apopka, Scott won most precincts when he defeated Alex Sink there in his bid for the governor’s mansion in 2010.
By the time DeSantis ran eight years later, Democrats held a narrow edge in voter registration and Democratic candidate Andrew Gillum carried the district. Voters there also elected Thompson, who defeated Olszewski. And Democrats won the region’s most powerful local position when Jerry Demings was elected county mayor.
At the same time, Republicans have strengthened their imprint on exurban areas in west and north Lake County, as well as in east Orange and east Osceola Counties.
But Orlando’s deep blue urban core has also extended Democrats’ territory south to Kissimmee over the past decade and potentially north to Seminole County.
There, voters could send GOP incumbent state Reps. Scott Plakon and David Smith back to Tallahassee or could usher in a changing of the guard by electing their Democratic opponents Tracey Kagan and Pasha Baker. And in State Senate District 9, Republican Jason Brodeur faces a staunch challenger in Patricia Sigman, a Democrat.
Like west Orange, in 2010 most Seminole precincts leaned Republican, including swaths of Oviedo, west to Altamonte Springs and north to Lake Mary and Sanford. But by 2018, Democrats had tipped the scales in many of those places, holding slim margins in about 20 precincts in each of those cities.
The county could also swing left in a presidential election for the first time in generations, two years after Gillum barely won the county over DeSantis.
Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, said Seminole County’s growth has brought younger, more diverse residents there, who vote Democrat in higher numbers. It may not be considered a swing county for long.
“If current trends continue, it’s certainly possible it becomes a blue county,” he said. “I think certainly President Trump has accelerated the change.”
Sensing that opportunity, several groups are working to bolster turnout, especially among Black voters along the I-4 Corridor.
Kristin Fulwhylie, an activist who runs Equal Ground, an organization focused on turning out Black voters, said turnout among Black voters isn’t as high as she’d like yet but hopes the final weekend of events like Souls to the Polls will skyrocket numbers.
“I think people are excited to vote for the candidates, but also the issues,” she said. “I think there’s a lot of enthusiasm for the amendments.”
Adelaide Chen of the Sentinel staff contributed.
rygillespie@orlandosentinel.com
